Christian Braun Points - Player Prop Bet 4/19/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Christian Braun

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Apr 19, 2023

Updated Apr 20, 2023 1:32 AM EST

Analysis

Christian Braun Points Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Christian Braun has successfully made 61.0% of his field goals over the last 5 games at home, 12.2% more than he's converted overall this season playing at home.
The matchup vs. the Timberwolves is a difficult one; they have given up the 9th-least points per game in the league to opposing teams over the last 5 games (110.2).
The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the league this year, which should raise opportunities for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Christian Braun will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city usually raises player performance in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Christian Braun has sunk 19.3% of his three-pointers over the last 15 games, -14.3% lower than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the year.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while playing at home.
The Timberwolves have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been poor at getting to the free throw line: 7th-worst in the league this year with a measly 22.3 free throws per game.
This matchup is a good one for drawing fouls; the other team have attempted a whopping 25.8 free throws per game this year (2nd-most in the NBA).