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Chris Paul

Chris Paul Points
Player Prop - 2/1/2025

San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat

Chris Paul Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The matchup against the Miami Heat is a positive one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1).

The 6th-quickest pace home offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Spurs.

The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).

Chris Paul has converted a terrific 93.9% of his foul shot attempts this season, a significant increase from his 75.1 rate last season.

The matchup against the Miami Heat may be a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting PGs have attempted an enormous 5.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Chris Paul has been called for 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 1.0 more than he's been called for over the course of the season at home.

In terms of scoring, the San Antonio Spurs's feeble 45.2% field goal percentage when playing at home measures as the 7th-fewest in the league over the last 15 games.

The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-slowest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to fewer plays for the San Antonio Spurs.

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