Chris Paul Points - Player Prop Bet 3/13/2024

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Chris Paul

NBA · Player Props

Chris Paul

G · Golden State Warriors

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors · Mar 13, 2024

Updated Mar 14, 2024 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Chris Paul Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-123/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chris Paul has converted 44.0% of his shots from downtown over the last 15 games, 11.2% higher than he's sunk overall this season.
The Golden State Warriors have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Warriors.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Golden State Warriors grade out 2nd-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 12.5 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

Favors Under

Chris Paul has been on the court for a lowly 27.1 minutes per game this season, significantly lower than his 32.4 minutes per game last season.
In regard to scoring, the Warriors's unimpressive 45.7% field goal percentage as the road team rates 10th-worst in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup vs. Dallas is a hard one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Mavericks are playing at home, opposing starting PGs have totaled the 4th-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.6).
Compared to last season's 2.1 rate, Chris Paul's free throws converted have been reduced this season to 1.0 per game.
Over the last 20 games, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.9 free throws per game (fewest in the league) against the Mavericks, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

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