Brook Lopez Points - Player Prop Bet 3/14/2023

NBA · Player Props

Brook Lopez

C · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks · Mar 14, 2023

Updated Mar 15, 2023 2:12 AM EST

Analysis

Brook Lopez Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against the Suns is a favorable one for three-point attempts; the opposing team's starting Cs have averaged the 21st-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (1.7).
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 6th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games away from their home court.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Brook Lopez has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 12.5% more than he's put through the hoop overall this season when playing away from home.
The matchup vs. the Suns may be a positive one for getting to the free throw line; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a massive 4.3 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (21st-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Brook Lopez has sunk 25.6% of his 3-point shots this year, placing him in the 21st percentile out of all players in the league.
Brook Lopez has tallied 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the league (91st percentile).
The Suns have played at the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should lead to decreased plays for the Bucks.
The Suns have given up the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.9) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Brook Lopez will not hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road usually worsens player production in all stat categories.