Brook Lopez Assists - Player Prop Bet 12/16/2023

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Brook Lopez

NBA · Player Props

Brook Lopez

C · Milwaukee Bucks

Assists

Milwaukee Bucks vs Detroit Pistons · Dec 16, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 10:57 PM EST

Analysis

Brook Lopez Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Brook Lopez has tallied 35.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.7 more than he's tallied over the course of the year.
The 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Bucks.
The Pistons have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to increase plays for the Bucks.
Brook Lopez will likely see an increase in production in all stat categories due to enjoying the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Brook Lopez has tallied 1.5 assists per game at home this year, putting him in the 25th percentile -- one of the worst in the NBA by this metric.
Brook Lopez has tallied 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 1.0 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year at home.
The Bucks have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games when they are on their home court, opposing clubs have snagged 12.2 offensive rebounds per game (7th-highest in the league) against the Detroit Pistons (preserving possessions that can create more opportunities for offense).

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