Brook Lopez Assists - Player Prop Bet 4/22/2023

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Brook Lopez

NBA · Player Props

Brook Lopez

C · Milwaukee Bucks

Assists

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Apr 22, 2023

Updated Apr 22, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Brook Lopez Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Brook Lopez has been on the court for 30.1 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 80th percentile.
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games while playing on the road.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Brook Lopez has committed 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 0.9 higher than he's committed overall this year on the road.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Bucks.
Brook Lopez will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium generally decreases player production in all facets of the game.

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