Brandon Miller Points - Player Prop Bet 12/13/2023

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Brandon Miller

NBA · Player Props

Brandon Miller

F · Charlotte Hornets

Points

Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets · Dec 13, 2023

Updated Dec 14, 2023 12:55 AM EST

Analysis

Brandon Miller Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Brandon Miller has made 3.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 more than he's sunk overall this year.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SGs have tallied 19.6 points per game (29th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, designating this as a positive matchup for offensive productivity.
The Miami Heat have played at the 9th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games on the road, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Charlotte Hornets.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and spark bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Hornets rank 13thbest in in the league when playing away from home with 13.7 offensive boards per game this year.
This year when they are on the road, opposing teams have come down with 9.2 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Heat (shortening possessions that could otherwise create bonus opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Brandon Miller ranks in the 92nd percentile for personal fouls, tallying a massive 3.0 fouls per game at home this year.
In regard to shooting, the Charlotte Hornets's lackluster 108.8 points per game measures as the 8th-fewest in the league over the last 5 games.
The least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Charlotte Hornets.
Brandon Miller should suffer a drop-off in efficiency in all facets of the game considering being on the road in this contest.

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