Bam Adebayo Points - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Bam Adebayo

C-F · Miami Heat

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat · Jan 3, 2024

Updated Jan 3, 2024 10:59 PM EST

Analysis

Bam Adebayo Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-136/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -143 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Bam Adebayo has averaged 22.0 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA in this category: 91st percentile.
Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo registers in the 90th percentile for playing time, tallying a whopping 34.1 minutes per game this year.
The Miami Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.
The rate of shots from downtown made against Anthony Davis has been remarkably high (47.2%) when facing fellow starting Cs this year (93rd percentile).
The Heat will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 4th-quickest pace home team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Lakers).

Favors Under

Bam Adebayo has made 20.0% of his 3-point shots this year, putting him in the 12th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league without the home court advantage this year.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and bring about extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 3rdworst in in the league as the road team with a mere 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The matchup vs. Anthony Davis is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; when Davis is on his home court and facing fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a mere 1.9 foul shots per game (7th percentile).
Bam Adebayo will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling tends to reduce player performance across the board.