Austin Reaves Points - Player Prop Bet 12/21/2023

NBA · Player Props

Austin Reaves

G · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Lakers · Dec 21, 2023

Updated Dec 22, 2023 2:10 AM EST

Analysis

Austin Reaves Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Austin Reaves has tallied 14.5 points per game when playing away from home this year, putting him in the 77th percentile -- near the top of the league in this category.
The matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves is a hard one; they have given up the least points per game in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (106.7).
The 3rd-quickest pace away team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Los Angeles Lakers.
Austin Reaves has successfully made 86.9% of his foul shots this year, placing him in the 80th percentile among all players in the NBA.
As a team, the Los Angeles Lakers have been terrific at getting to the foul line in recent days: 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 15 games while playing away from home with 23.4 free throw attempts per game.

Favors Under

The Lakers will likely suffer a reduction in opportunities in this contest from squaring off against the 8th-most lethargic pace offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
The Lakers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
While on their home court, the Timberwolves have given up the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.9) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a positive one for drawing fouls; opposing clubs have attempted a colossal 24.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (9th-most in the league).
Austin Reaves will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to worsen player production in all stat categories.