Anthony Edwards Points - Player Prop Bet 3/31/2024

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Anthony Edwards

NBA · Player Props

Anthony Edwards

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Chicago Bulls · Mar 31, 2024

Updated Mar 31, 2024 11:09 PM EST

Analysis

Anthony Edwards Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Anthony Edwards has made 49.2% of his treys over the last 5 games at home, 11.3% more than he's made from downtown over the course of the year when playing at home.
Out of all players in the league, Anthony Edwards slots into the 95th percentile for playing time, logging a massive 35.0 minutes per game on his home court this year.
The Timberwolves have been the 3rd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.
The Timberwolves will likely see an increase in plays today from being pitted against the 8th-fastest tempo road offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Chicago Bulls).
In comparison to last year's 4.1 rate, Anthony Edwards's free throws hit have spiked this year to 5.3 per game.

Favors Under

This year, opposing starting SGs have tallied 10.6 shot attempts per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Bulls, designating this as a hard matchup.
The 5th-slowest pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the home team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Bulls is a challenging one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted just 1.7 foul shots per game this year (least in the league).

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