Anfernee Simons Points - Player Prop Bet 11/23/2024

NBA · Player Props

Anfernee Simons

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers · Nov 23, 2024

Updated Nov 24, 2024 3:05 AM EST

Analysis

Anfernee Simons Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last year's 2.1 rate, Anfernee Simons's personal fouls per game have fallen this year to 1.3.
The 6th-fastest tempo team in the league this year has been the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Trail Blazers will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from facing the most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Rockets).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create added chances for scoring and assists, and the Trail Blazers grade out 3rd-best in in the NBA with 13.5 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Anfernee Simons has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 13.4% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.

Favors Under

Anfernee Simons has sunk just 26.6% of his three-point shots this season, quite a bit less than his 36.0 rate last season.
When it comes to scoring, the Portland Trail Blazers's subpar 105.6 points per game settles in as the 3rd-weakest in the NBA this year.
Over the last 10 games when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PGs have posted 12.8 points per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Houston Rockets, identifying this as a hard matchup for offensive output.
The Houston Rockets have given up the 26th-most offensive boards per game (10.5) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 17 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Houston may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 1.7 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Houston Rockets are on their home court (least in the league).