Andre Jackson Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/23/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Andre Jackson Jr.

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat · Jan 23, 2025

Updated Jan 23, 2025 8:35 PM EST

Analysis

Andre Jackson Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Andre Jackson Jr. has sunk 43.3% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games at home, 12.2% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc over the course of the year on his home court.
In terms of offense, the Milwaukee Bucks's excellent 125.2 points per game with the home court advantage rates 3rd-best in the league over the last 5 games.
This year, the opposition's starting SGs have totaled 6.3 3-point attempts per game (most in the league) vs. the Heat, designating this as a positive matchup.
The Bucks have played at the 5th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 20 games.
Andre Jackson Jr. will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court usually improves player production across the board.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Andre Jackson Jr. comes in at the 75th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a whopping 2.2 fouls per game this year.
The Heat have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should reduce plays for the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Bucks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
Compared to last year's 75.0% mark, Andre Jackson Jr.'s free-throw ability has tailed off this year to 52.8%.
The matchup against Miami may be a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted just 1.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Miami Heat are away from home (4th-least in the NBA).