A.J. Green Points - Player Prop Bet 12/20/2024

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A.J. Green

NBA · Player Props

A.J. Green

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Milwaukee Bucks · Dec 20, 2024

Updated Dec 21, 2024 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

AJ Green has converted 70.6% of his field goals over the last 5 games on the road, 15.5% higher than he's put through the net overall this year away from home.
The Bucks have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games.
This year, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 41.4% on 3-pointers (2nd-highest in the league) against the Cavaliers, resulting in a strong matchup.
The Bucks are expected to get a boost in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-fastest tempo home offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Cavaliers).

Favors Under

In comparison to last year's 1.2 rate, AJ Green's three-point shots made have risen this year to 2.5 per game.
AJ Green has tallied 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 1.5 more than he's tallied over the course of the year.
The Bucks have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road.
The Bucks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
Out of all players in the league, AJ Green registers in the 7th percentile for getting to the free-throw line, registering a mere 0.2 free throws per game without the home court advantage this year.

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