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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/28/2025

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 53.8% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 7.5% higher than he's put through the net in all games this season.

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 2.2 threes per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's made in all games this season.

Aaron Nesmith has committed a measly 2.6 personal fouls per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 3.5 fouls per game last season.

The Pacers rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.

This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 12.2 field goal attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, creating a strong matchup.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Pacers are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities today from competing against the most lethargic pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat).

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create further chances for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with just 9.0 offensive boards per game this year.

Aaron Nesmith should experience a decrease in productivity in all facets of the game in light of playing on the visting team in this game.

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