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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 10/28/2024

Orlando Magic vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith ranks in the 92nd percentile for three-point prowess with a very good 40.8% rate since the start of last season.

With respect to shooting, the Pacers's stellar 121.2 points per game rates best in the NBA since the start of last season.

The matchup against the Orlando Magic is a strong one for 3-pointers; the opposition's starting SFs have averaged the 8th-most three-point shots per game in the NBA this year (1.9).

The Pacers have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league since the start of last season.

The matchup against the Magic may be a favorable one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a colossal 5.5 free throws per game over the last 10 games (4th-most in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.5 personal fouls per game since the start of last season, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (100th percentile).

The Orlando Magic have played at the 5th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA on their home court since the start of last season, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Indiana Pacers.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers rank 9thworst in in the NBA as the away team with a mere 10.1 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.

Aaron Nesmith stands to see a decline in effectiveness in all stat categories as a result of being on the road in this contest.

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