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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 5/25/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 41.3% of his three-pointers this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile out of all players in the league.

The Indiana Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the league this year.

This year when they are on their home court, opposing starting SFs have totaled 6.7 three attempts per game (highest in the league) vs. the Celtics, identifying this as a good matchup.

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 89.6% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games at home, 7.8% more than he's put through the net over the course of the year while at home.

Aaron Nesmith will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage tends to raise player performance across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has been called for 3.2 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.

The Pacers have played at the 6th-slowest pace in the league over the last 15 games.

The Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home stadium, which should decrease opportunities for the Indiana Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 5 games when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 1.5 free throws per game (5th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, making it tough to draw fouls.

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