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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 11/8/2023

Indiana Pacers vs Utah Jazz

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-128/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith rates in the 75th percentile for three-point shots made, posting 1.6 per game since the start of last season.

The Pacers check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league while on their home court since the start of last season.

The Pacers have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA away from home this year.

This year, their opposition has grabbed 8.3 offensive boards per game (3rd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Jazz (reducing possessions that could otherwise lead to further chances for offense).

Aaron Nesmith ought to get a boost in efficiency for all stats on account of enjoying the home court advantage in this game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith comes in at the 25th percentile for scoring proficiency while at home with a a weak 42.0% rate this year.

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith slots into the 79th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a monstrous 2.4 fouls per game this year.

The matchup vs. the Utah Jazz is a favorable one; they have given up the 5th-most points per game in the league to opposing squads this year (120.1).

The Pacers will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from facing the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play away team in the league this year (the Jazz).

As a team, the Pacers have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the foul line of late: 7th-worst in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, drawing a mere 20.0 foul shot attempts per game.

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