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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/7/2023

Indiana Pacers vs Detroit Pistons

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted an impressive 40.6% of his field goals this year, a significant increase from his 33.2 rate last year.

Aaron Nesmith has made 54.7% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games, 22.4% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this season.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA at home this year.

The Indiana Pacers have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith has attempted 3.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 higher than he's attempted overall this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 3.2 personal fouls per game this year, a significant increase from his 1.1 fouls per game last year.

The matchup vs. Detroit is a difficult one for 3-pointers; when the Pistons are on the road, opposing starting PFs have totaled the 15th-least three-point shots per game in the league this year (1.0).

The Pistons have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Pacers.

The Pistons have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.1) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

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