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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/23/2023

Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 1.1 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the lowest-fouling players in the league (22nd percentile).

The matchup vs. the Celtics is a good one for field goal attempts; opposing starting PFs have totaled the 29th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (12.1).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup against Boston is a good one for getting to the free throw line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a colossal 3.8 foul shots per game this year when the Celtics are the visiting team (23rd-most in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 33.2% of his field goal attempts this year, ranking him in the 8th percentile out of all players in the league.

Aaron Nesmith has made 22.6% of his attempts from downtown this year, putting him in the 14th percentile out of all players in the league.

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 8.9 minutes per game this year, ranking among the least-used players in the NBA: 12th percentile.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 7th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.

The Celtics have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games away from their home stadium, which should lead to fewer plays for the Pacers.

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