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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/8/2023

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 2.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's converted from downtown overall this year.

Aaron Nesmith has played 30.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.9 higher than he's played overall this year.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games.

The Indiana Pacers have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Heat have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 4.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's averaged in all games this year.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games when playing on the road.

The matchup against the Heat is a tough one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting PFs have shot for the 8th-lowest three percentage in the league this year (31.4%).

The matchup vs. Caleb Martin is a tough one for shots from the field; when facing fellow starting PFs this year, they have converted a mere 49.0% of their shots from the field (87th percentile).

The Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games in their home stadium, which ought to reduce plays for the Pacers.

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