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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 3/17/2024

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has successfully made 79.4% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 21.0% more than he's converted overall this year.

Aaron Gordon has tallied 31.3 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 83rd percentile.

This year, the other team's starting PFs have tallied 16.0 field goal attempts per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, identifying this as a good matchup.

The Denver Nuggets are expected to see a spike in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Mavericks).

Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 6th-best in in the league as the road team with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Nuggets check in as the least aggressive offense in the NBA as the visting team this year as it relates to three-point attempts.

The Denver Nuggets have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 25 games as the road team.

Aaron Gordon has converted 62.0% of his free throws this year, ranking in the 15th percentile among all players in the NBA.

The matchup against Dallas is a hard one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted just 2.5 free throws per game this year when the Dallas Mavericks are at home (3rd-least in the NBA).

Aaron Gordon will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court tends to decrease player production in all stat categories.

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