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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 2/29/2024

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has converted 65.7% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 8.7% more than he's converted in all games this year.

Aaron Gordon has played 30.1 minutes per game while playing at home this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.

The matchup against the Miami Heat is a strong one for threes; opposing starting PFs have compiled the 29th-highest three percentage in the league this year (43.4%).

The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).

The Miami Heat have given up the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.5) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Gordon has been called for 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 0.2 higher than he's been called for in all games this season at home.

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest tempo in the league this year.

The Miami Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Denver Nuggets.

As it relates to getting to the foul line, the Nuggets's poor 20.5 free throw attempts per game comes in as the 3rd-worst in the NBA this year.

Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (14th-lowest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, making it tough to draw fouls.

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