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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 6/12/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has sunk 65.8% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 9.6% higher than he's sunk overall this season.

Aaron Gordon has successfully made 58.8% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games, 26.1% more than he's sunk overall this year.

Aaron Gordon has been on the court for 36.4 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.5 higher than he's been on the court for overall this year.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

While on the road, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The matchup vs. Miami is a challenging one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are on the road, the other team's starting PFs have shot for the 14th-lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (26.7%).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Nuggets.

As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been bad at getting to the free throw line: worst in the league this year, averaging just 22.3 foul shots per game.

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