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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 6/9/2023

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has sunk 56.1% of his field goals this year, placing him in the 88th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Aaron Gordon has missed 1.6 three-pointers per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 2.3 rate last year.

Aaron Gordon has played 36.5 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.7 higher than he's played overall this year.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from home.

The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The matchup against the Heat is a hard one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting PFs have shot for the 11th-lowest three percentage in the NBA this year (28.1%).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games when playing on the road.

The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Nuggets.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Aaron Gordon will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road usually worsens player performance for all stats.

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