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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 6/4/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has successfully made 54.2% of his field goal attempts playing at home this year, ranking in the 84th percentile among all players in the league.

Aaron Gordon has tallied 36.3 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.6 higher than he's tallied overall this year.

The Denver Nuggets check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

While playing on the road, the Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup against the Heat may be a good one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 4.6 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (29th-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Gordon has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.1 more than he's committed in all games this season.

The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to three-point attempts.

The matchup against Miami is a challenging one for threes; when the Heat are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PFs have posted the 13th-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (25.2%).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing at home.

The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Nuggets.

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