My Account Log Out

reorder

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 6/1/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has successfully made 53.8% of his field goal attempts playing at home this year, placing him in the 83rd percentile among all players in the league.

Aaron Gordon has played 36.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.9 more than he's played in all games this year.

The Denver Nuggets check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

While playing on the road, the Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup against the Heat may be a good one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a massive 4.6 free throws per game over the last 15 games (29th-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Gordon has committed 2.9 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 0.9 higher than he's committed overall this year.

The Denver Nuggets have been the least aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to three-point attempts.

The matchup against Miami is a hard one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PFs have shot for the 15th-lowest three rate in the NBA this year (25.7%).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-slowest pace in the league over the last 20 games while on their home court.

The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home city, which should reduce plays for the Nuggets.

More Aaron Gordon Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™