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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 5/7/2023

Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-115/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has sunk 56.6% of his field goals this year, ranking in the 89th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Aaron Gordon has tallied 38.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 8.0 more than he's tallied overall this year.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Aaron Gordon has attempted 4.5 free throws per game this season, quite a bit higher than his 3.2 rate last season.

The matchup against Phoenix may be a favorable one for getting to the free throw line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a whopping 5.7 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Suns are playing at home (29th-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Denver Nuggets rank as the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while playing away from home.

The matchup against the Suns is a tough one; they have allowed the 12th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PFs over the last 25 games (11.7).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 25 games.

The Suns have played at the 9th-least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to reduce possessions for the Nuggets.

On their home court, the Suns have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (13.1) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).

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