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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 4/21/2023

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has successfully made 57.1% of his shot attempts from the field this year, putting him in the 89th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

The matchup vs. the Timberwolves is a favorable one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting PFs have put up the 22nd-highest three percentage in the league this year (35.5%).

The Denver Nuggets rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Gordon has attempted 4.6 foul shots per game this season, significantly higher than his 3.2 rate last season.

The matchup vs. the Timberwolves is a good one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a whopping 4.0 free throws per game this year (29th-most in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Gordon has committed 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's committed overall this year.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.

The Timberwolves have played at the 8th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Nuggets.

The Timberwolves have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).

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