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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 4/16/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has made a terrific 57.3% of his shot attempts from the field this year, significantly more than his 51.6 mark last year.

Aaron Gordon has averaged 28.7 minutes per game when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league.

The matchup against Minnesota is a favorable one for shot attempts from the field; when the Timberwolves are away from home, opposing starting PFs have totaled the 29th-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (12.6).

The Timberwolves have played at the 6th-fastest pace in the league this year, which should increase plays for the Nuggets.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Gordon has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 0.8 higher than he's accumulated over the course of the year at home.

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.

The Timberwolves have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Gordon has failed to convert 1.8 free throws per game this season, quite a bit more than his 0.8 mark last season.

As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been lousy at getting to the free throw line: 7th-worst in the NBA this year with a measly 22.4 foul shot attempts per game.

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