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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 4/2/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has successfully made an impressive 57.7% of his field goals this season, significantly higher than his 51.6 mark last season.

The Denver Nuggets check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league playing at home this year.

The matchup against Golden State is a good one; when the Warriors are away from home, they have given up the 28th-most points per game in the league to opposing starting PFs this year (17.3).

The Warriors have played at the speediest pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Nuggets.

The matchup vs. the Warriors is a favorable one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a colossal 3.8 foul shots per game this year (29th-most in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Gordon has averaged 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the league when it comes to getting T'ed up (94th percentile).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.

While on the road, the Warriors have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.2) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Gordon has sunk a lowly 62.4% of his free throw attempts this season, significantly lower than his 73.9 rate last season.

As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls: 9th-worst in the league this year, totaling a lowly 22.4 foul shot attempts per game.

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