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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 3/30/2023

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has sunk an impressive 58.0% of his shots from the field this year, quite a bit higher than his 51.6 mark last year.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Pelicans have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (6.6) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup against the Pelicans may be a good one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 4.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (26th-most in the league).

Aaron Gordon will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city tends to raises stat production for all stats.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Gordon has sunk 17.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, -15.0% less than he's made from downtown overall this year.

Aaron Gordon has been called for 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA when it comes to technicals (95th percentile).

The Denver Nuggets rank as the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league this year in terms of attempts from downtown.

The matchup vs. New Orleans is a challenging one; when the Pelicans are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PFs over the last 15 games (10.9).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.

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