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Zay Jones

Zay Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

Zay Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+770/-2000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1550 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2000.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cardinals rank as the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 64.7% pass rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to see 129.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.

The Arizona Cardinals O-line grades out as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals since the start of last season (only 56.6 per game on average).

Zay Jones has been not been very involved his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks in the 1st percentile among wideouts.

Zay Jones has been in just the 16th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a feeble 9.3 figure since the start of last season.

The receiving TD column reads "0" on the back of Zay Jones's trading card since the start of last season.

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