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Zay Jones

Zay Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

Zay Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1100/-4900).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2750 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -4900.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals grades out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cardinals have run the 10th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.

Arizona's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats too low) considering playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

Zay Jones has been has not been looked to very often his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks in the 1st percentile among WRs.

As it relates to air yards, Zay Jones grades out in the measly 24th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, with just 10.0 per game.

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