Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-127/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to accrue 6.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among WRs.
Zay Jones has been a more important option in his offense's air attack this year (21.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (11.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
The New York Giants pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (60.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (60.6%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.