Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-101/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 42.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to total 7.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among WRs.
Zay Jones has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack this year (21.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (11.8%).

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Zay Jones's receiving effectiveness has declined this season, totaling a mere 6.49 yards-per-target compared to a 7.58 rate last season.
The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 118.0) to WRs this year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wideouts this year, giving up 6.07 yards-per-target to the position: the least in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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