Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (+101/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ +101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to notch 7.7 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
Zay Jones has been a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack this year (21.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (11.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Zay Jones's receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, notching just 6.36 yards-per-target compared to a 7.58 rate last season.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 133.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) versus wideouts this year (62.9%).
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus WRs this year, yielding 7.76 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.