Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Zay Jones has been used less as a potential target this year (90.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (57.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to earn 7.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Zay Jones has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
Zay Jones has been among the least effective pass-catchers in football, averaging a measly 7.02 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 15th percentile among wide receivers
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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