Zay Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+221/-332).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -280 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -332.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Zay Jones has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.3% this year, which places him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Zay Jones has compiled a whopping 64.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among wide receivers.
Zay Jones's 52.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 32.8.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.