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Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Zay Flowers Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+138/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -144 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -154.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • Our trusted projections expect Zay Flowers to be a more important option in his offense's pass game near the goal line in this week's game (23.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.6% in games he has played).
  • Zay Flowers has accrued a colossal 71.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • Zay Flowers's 70.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 62.1.
  • Zay Flowers's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 65.7% to 76.1%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 5th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (48.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).

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