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Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Zay Flowers Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+182/-196).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -196.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects Zay Flowers to be a more important option in his team's air attack near the goal line this week (21.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.1% in games he has played).
  • Zay Flowers has compiled a monstrous 71.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Zay Flowers's 67.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 94th percentile for WRs.
  • Zay Flowers's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.7% to 71.5%.
  • This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a massive 1.14 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts: the 5th-worst rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.

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