|
|
Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+111/-140).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -140.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.The projections expect Zay Flowers to accrue 7.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.Zay Flowers's 70.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 62.1.Zay Flowers is positioned as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a remarkable 5.1 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.Zay Flowers's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 65.7% to 76.1%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Dolphins, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.0 per game) this year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
