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Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-142/+123).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +123.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.Zay Flowers has run a route on 95.1% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among WRs.The projections expect Zay Flowers to accrue 8.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.With an exceptional 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) this year, Zay Flowers rates as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.The Ravens offense has played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 30.46 seconds per snap.The Ravens O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's group of CBs has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.
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