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Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-141/+110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect Zay Flowers to notch 8.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile among WRs.With an exceptional 29.6% Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.With an exceptional 4.7 adjusted receptions per game (94th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been as one of the leading WRs in the league in football.Zay Flowers's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.7% to 71.5%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.The Baltimore Ravens O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
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