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Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+107/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -192 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +107.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are predicted by the model to run 66.4 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Our trusted projections expect Zay Flowers to accumulate 9.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
  • Zay Flowers has been a big part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 30.4% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Zay Flowers grades out as one of the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 4.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Ravens to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.3% pass rate.
  • The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 28.6 per game) this year.
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year.

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