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Zack Moss

Zack Moss Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Zack Moss Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a giant 9-point favorite in this week's contest.

Out of all RBs, Zack Moss grades out in the 81st percentile for rush attempts last year, comprising 48.6% of the workload in his team's run game.

With a stellar tally of 57.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (82nd percentile), Zack Moss has been as one of the best RBs in the league last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Bengals as the 4th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.6% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have just 123.8 plays on offense run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop.

The Patriots defense owns the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing ground games last year, allowing just 3.59 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, New England's safety corps has been exceptional last year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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