Zack Moss Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Zack Moss Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ +101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 32.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 94 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.