Zack Moss Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Zack Moss

NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing TD

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 2:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Zack Moss Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+433/-981).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.5 plays per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.5% red zone run rate.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Zack Moss has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest marks in the league among running backs (1st percentile).
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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