Zach Wilson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Passing Yards

New York Jets vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 7, 2023 11:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 205.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Zach Wilson.
The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
A passing game script is suggested by the Jets being a -5.5-point underdog this week.
Zach Wilson's 59.7% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a noteworthy progression in his throwing precision over last season's 55.9% figure.
This year, the feeble Houston Texans defense has surrendered a monstrous 259.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 7th-worst in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 6th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
When talking about pass protection (and the impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
With a weak 6.04 adjusted yards-per-target (7th percentile) this year, Zach Wilson places as one of the least efficient quarterbacks in football.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Houston's group of CBs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.

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