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Zach Ertz
NFL · Player Props
Zach Ertz
TE · Washington Commanders
Touchdowns
Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2025 Updated Nov 3, 2025 1:07 AM EST
NFL Props Zach Ertz Touchdowns

Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-184).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -188 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -184.

Favors Over
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
  • The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (42.0 per game) this year.
  • With a high 23.8% Red Zone Target Rate (94th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz places as one of the TEs with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL.
  • When it comes to air yards, Zach Ertz grades out in the towering 90th percentile among TEs this year, accruing a colossal 36.0 per game.
Favors Under
  • The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (47.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Commanders.
  • The Commanders have run the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.
  • Zach Ertz's 70.1% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a significant decline in his receiving proficiency over last year's 77.2% rate.
  • This year, the imposing Seahawks defense has surrendered a measly 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-lowest rate in football.
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