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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+315/-350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -335 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -350.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are giant underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • Zach Ertz has totaled a massive 38.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among tight ends.
  • Zach Ertz's 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 88th percentile for tight ends.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
  • At the present time, the 5th-most run-focused team in the league near the end zone (49.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Washington Commanders.
  • The Washington Commanders have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.7 plays per game.
  • Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.1 per game) this year.
  • Our trusted projections expect Zach Ertz to be a less important option in his offense's pass game near the end zone in this game (22.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (27.8% in games he has played).

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