Zach Ertz Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2025

Updated Oct 27, 2025 11:42 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+315/-350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -335 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -350.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are giant underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Zach Ertz has totaled a massive 38.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz's 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 88th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 5th-most run-focused team in the league near the end zone (49.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Washington Commanders.
The Washington Commanders have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.1 per game) this year.
Our trusted projections expect Zach Ertz to be a less important option in his offense's pass game near the end zone in this game (22.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (27.8% in games he has played).